The Paradox of Uncertainty
Why 2025's Complexity Is Actually an Advantage in Food Systems
Author
James Bernard
We're living through what historians will likely remember as one of the most complex periods in modern history. Economic volatility, political upheaval, environmental crises, and social transformation are converging in ways we've never seen before.
Nowhere is this complexity more evident — or more urgent — than in our global food systems. With soil eroding more than 100 times faster than it naturally regenerates, about 60% of the world’s crops grown in areas facing high or extremely high levels of water stress, and nearly 300 million people suffering high levels of acute food insecurity in 2024 — not to mention conflicts that disrupt supply chains and pressure on ocean environments — the stakes couldn't be higher.
The natural human response? Hunker down and wait for calmer seas.
But here's what we've observed across dozens of organizations globally: the leaders who are thriving right now aren't the ones playing it safe. They're the ones who've recognized something counterintuitive — that periods of intense uncertainty create unprecedented opportunities for meaningful change.
This isn't just anecdotal. McKinsey research shows that during the last economic downturn, about 10% of publicly traded companies fared materially better than the rest —and these weren't companies that simply hunkered down. Studies consistently show that resilient companies prepare ahead of downturns and enjoy gains long after the crisis is over.
In food systems specifically, we're seeing this play out in remarkable ways. Despite economic uncertainty, 83% of food and beverage brands are planning to increase innovation investment in 2025 — up from 76% last year. Meanwhile, the AI in agriculture market has surpassed $2 billion in 2024 and is projected to exceed $4.7 billion by 2028, reflecting how companies continue to invest in innovation, despite the uncertainty. These companies understand that crisis often catalyzes the most transformative breakthroughs.
When the ground is shifting beneath everyone's feet, that's precisely when forward-thinking leaders:
Question assumptions that seemed unshakeable just months ago
Engage stakeholders in entirely new conversations
Form alliances that would have been impossible in stable times
Reimagine their missions with fresh urgency and clarity
The organizations that understand this paradox aren't just surviving 2025 — they're using it as a launching pad for their most impactful work yet.
Turning Insight into Action
This realization led us to develop three human-centered approaches that help organizations harness uncertainty:
🔍 Deep stakeholder listening to uncover hidden opportunities
📋 Mission refinement that cuts through the noise
🤝 Strategic alliance building in unexpected places
Check out our Services for more information about how to turn uncertainty into opportunity.
We’re Curious About Your Experience
How is your organization responding to 2025's complexities? Are you seeing opportunities emerge from the uncertainty, or are you finding it challenging to move forward strategically?
Quick Poll: What's your organization's primary response to current uncertainties?
Accelerating strategic initiatives
Taking a cautious, wait-and-see approach
Completely reimagining our approach
Struggling to find clear direction
